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How can you predict what traffic will be from SEO promotion?
There are two approaches to traffic forecasting, which can produce different results. Let's take a closer look at them.
The first way is to collect the following data:
1) List of search queries.
2) Assessing the factors influencing the probability of clicking on these queries, which allows you to estimate the CTR.
What can affect the CTR?
The more active the advertising units, the more advertising in the search results, the lower the CTR of organic positions that are located below these elements will be.
3) Estimation of the frequency of search queries. It is important to understand what the frequency of requests is in the region you need, taking into account various variations of word forms and word order.
Based on this information, a model can be built. If for similar queries you see that a certain amount of traffic comes from certain positions, this model can be adapted to queries for which you are not yet in the TOP.
This is a complex and time-consuming process, requiring from several weeks to several months, depending on the volume of the site and the specific semantics. This approach is ideal for large online stores and marketplaces that need to accurately predict results. However, for small and medium-sized businesses, this model can be unreasonably complex and time-consuming, since there are many factors that cannot be controlled, making forecasts less accurate.
The second approach is to analyze competitors. This method is simpler and more applicable to most businesses. However, the full algorithm with details can be studied in specialized courses, as it includes many nuances. We will briefly outline the basic principles.
To begin, select 3-5 strong competitors that already occupy good positions in search results. These competitors should be similar to your business in terms of product range, region and other criteria. Then collect information about the traffic of these sites:
Traffic data can be obtained through various analytical tools. For example, general traffic statistics can be found in comprehensive analytical services. It is also important to consider the ratio of paid to organic traffic, which can be found out through various free or paid reports.
After that, compare your site with your competitors: how much your site is inferior to them in terms of link mass, domain age, volume of content and other marks. This will help you build a formula that will give you a more accurate prediction of how much traffic you can expect based on your current rankings.
The time required for the forecast is usually a year. SEO promotion does not give instant results - the results come gradually, and during the first six months the changes may be almost imperceptible. Therefore, the forecast for six months is unlikely to be accurate. However, within a year it is already possible to build a more realistic picture.
Forecasting can be done as follows: If you want to achieve the same results as your competitors, a calculation can be made based on their current performance, multiplying their data by an estimated factor that takes into account your current SEO weakness.
For forecast accuracy, it is useful to use seasonality. In specialized services you can find data on seasonal fluctuations in demand for key queries. By creating a table for key queries, you can take into account seasonal changes in traffic and more accurately calculate how this will affect growth.
Thus, forecasting SEO traffic is a complex process, which, however, allows you to at least roughly imagine how the traffic situation will develop in the future. For clients who are unsure whether to invest in SEO, such a forecast can help make a decision: if the results do not justify the investment, alternative promotion strategies can be proposed.
If you have any questions or need advice, write to the SEO studio "SEO COMPUTER" at info@seo.computer.
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